I hate to break up the party

[Joe Mac]

I hate to break up the party guys. That win on the weekend was epic!

BUT

This team, time and time again has shown they can win the tight ones, only to stuff up the game the following in emphatic fashion!

I remember beating the AB's in Australia a few years back then getting smoked in NZ. beating the Boks in Brisbane last year and then getting smoked by the AB's. Beating the English in Perth and then choking in Sydney. KB (Kurtley Beale)'s winning kick in Bloem and then the frustrating 1 point loss to the AB's in Sydney.

Every time we start to see progress and get our hopes up that we are seeing a truly great team develop, we throw it all away a week later.

I really hope this time is different but i cant help but think we are going to do everything we can to stuff up our game against Wales this week...

Is this time different?

 

[TOCC]

i dont think anyone is now advocating that the Wallabies are invincble, there is still every chance we will(and probably will) lose a few tests over the next 12months, its obvious to anyone through this tri-nations that the Wallabies have made significant inroads, the improvement of players in key areas has the Wallabies with a very solid core group of players is what has people excited.

Its amazing to think that a team with so many players in there early 20's defeated one of the best and most experience All Black teams in recent history

 

[Gnostic]

Your a bit late a few of us have been raining on the parade for some time now, but your welcome to add your downpour as well.

A few of us have been saying that this time is not much different, the core issues of defence and selection remain and I would say that Deans is still waiting to long to use the bench and should empty it especially is such high paced games. McCalman was struggling towards the end and Brown may have been able to tighten the defence after 50 minutes. From memory it was a miss that led to the Nonu try.

 

[Joe Mac]

You are right Gnostic, im definitely not the first to think these things. Hopefully im proved wrong over the next month though and we really see the team play the way TOCC talks about them above. I bloody hope so!

 

[Reddy!]

What a better game to continue winning form then against the Welsh! Not because they are easy but because Australia v Wales games are always cracking ones, and we usually see some very very nice backline play by the Aussies against the Welsh. This is the perfect game to build upon what was achieved on the weekend.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

A win is a win, or is it?

What is the aim? To win a few games here or there, or to peak for the Grand Final?

We have just beaten the current top of the table team, and a bloody good victory on the death it was too. The Grand Final must be RWC 11 surely.

This victory will be great for our confidence, but it may force the Darkness to rethink, readjust and realign in sufficient time to come out bigger, brighter, and better just in time for RWC 2011. Not sure that this is in our best interest.

Wobs can not afford to get complacent.

JON had RWC 11 clearly in his focus when he got Dingo over. Despite all the interesting words, perhaps time may prove JON (and Dingo) right. Both are top class professionals in their respective fields.

 

[ChargerWA]

I doubt every one would be as positive if we had run up a cricket score, then held on by our finger nails to win by a point as the AB's raged back at us. I think the optimism comes because we have finally beaten the AB's in a second half. That speaks to genuine improvement, mainly mentally.

I wonder what it would take us to be truly satisfied? To come out and smash them for a whole 80 minutes, we are the number two side trying to beat the number one, realistically this was never on the cards, and if we had it would be saying more about how badly the AB's had played than how awesome we were.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

I'm not getting too excited yet, because we've been here before. BUT.... the manner in which the boys won on the weekend, coming back from what seemed to be a hopeless position and having the ticker and the brains to close the game out is something new. We hadn't really seen that before.

The best way to shut us all up is to beat Wales this week, and then England and then Italy and then France. Then I'll believe we're the real deal or approaching it. I think we can do it and I think the players now believe it too. Plenty to work on yet though.

 

[Travi34]

A lot of room to improve... but it was good to win a tight one, esp against world #1s, RWC host and trans-tasman "across the dutch" rivals the ABs...

Gives the young'uns a lot of confidence, and self belief, that if they are in the same situation, they can pull something off again...

Some players had shockers - Gits and Chiz to name a couple...

Big Test is for Deans to swing the axe, Gits has to go to the bench, Chiz has to leave the squad... if he can do that, and build/perfect a team for the RWC, rather than "hold one together" like the english have with Jonny "I'm 45yos" Wilkinson... we should be in good steed....

If we had Sookface in for 60min, not 20 min, and Mumm/Horwill on for the same time period... we could've easily put a cricket score on...

 

[Richo]

Overreacting to a win is as foolish as overreacting to a loss. Good improvement from the lads, but let's not get carried away. We won a dead rubber on neutral ground in a come from behind victory after a couple of very unlikely (from anyone but Donald) kicks. It's an important step but not a Sign that we're going to sweep the board for the next 12 months. That's just foolish.

But to say this win was perhaps BAD because it might have made New Zealand readjust... Umm, no.

 

[RedsHappy]

Closet Euphoria: When to Come Out?

I'm not getting too excited yet, because we've been here before. BUT.... the manner in which the boys won on the weekend, coming back from what seemed to be a hopeless position and having the ticker and the brains to close the game out is something new. We hadn't really seen that before. The best way to shut us all up is to beat Wales this week, and then England and then Italy and then France. Then I'll believe we're the real deal or approaching it. I think we can do it and I think the players now believe it too. Plenty to work on yet though.

Agree, TBH, and it's clear that there are many flaws in the team and its skill levels to fix yet before we could contemplate, for example, moving ahead of the ABs as a realistic possibility, or that we will build a robust Wallaby winning streak into 2011.

I said pre 3N that my 'required achievement marker' to show real progress there/then was: 3 wins, with one an away. We didn't quite make that.

Pre HKG, my view of the required EOYT markers were: win in HKG, and win all other EU games convincingly (as these EU teams rank below us and, generally, deservedly so). But I think I want to slightly amend that as follows:

- win all of W, E, F games with an average +ve PD across the 3 games in excess of 8 per game (as if we have a bias to 'just scraped in' type wins, there my be too much luck involved on the day, or we can't feel confident that the success is repeatable if we had to play that team a week later) and...

- use the I game to really trial the 'Australia A' tour players running on plus typically benched players running on: Davies, VTM, Hodgson, Higgers, Burgess gets run on, Slipper runs on, same with Turner, etc. Aim for a win of course, but tolerate a reasonable loss (say by no more than 5) as the price of seeing these players in a full Test environment for 60-80 mins. IMO, it would be a reckless waste, pre-RWC, to take these players on a trip like this and give them no, or very limited, Test time. And, in this game only, I'd like to see KB (Kurtley Beale) at 10 and JOC (James O'Connor) at 12 (so to assess contingent and potentially exciting new combos), and...

- +ve goal kick ratio across all 4 games averages 80+% (forget the RWC if we can't get there and better via KB (Kurtley Beale), JOC (James O'Connor), BB, QC (Quade Cooper)) and...

- successful tackle ratio averages 90%+ across all 4 games (IMO Austin was right that this is the required benchmark for consistent defensive success and thus low points leakage contributing to victories)

No one can say after 3 years of 'sustained investment' in coaches and player development that the above is some kind of unfair compendium of hurdles and challenges (against this NH competition) that no top 3 team could or should meet.

If we meet the above markers, my euphoria will be un-closeted for the first time in ages; even Daz and the man without the Ws will be pleased to know me (well, maybe).

 

[Slim 293]

I would love to see Australia stop giving up big leads... retrieve restarts... teach their flyhalf to tackle... consistencies in the set piece... consistent aggression at the breakdown... and finally dump Giteau...

One thing I was really impressed about last week is how the Wallaby forwards seemed to raise the intensity in the dying minutes and we generally had forwards in numbers flying into the rucks...

 

[Crow]

No one can say after 3 years of 'sustained investment' in coaches and player development that the above is some kind of unfair compendium of hurdles and challenges (against this NH competition) that no top 3 team could or should meet.

But if we apply your standards to the AB, they've already failed your pre HKG markers. Given the standard of international rugby, any team in arguably the top 8 has a reasonable chance of beating any other team. We could, for instance, play a brilliant game against England, only to be ref'd out of the match. Or France could pull its one brilliant game a year against us. Beating all NH teams on tour and the AB would normally be enough to win a WC and I think that to expect it merely as a mark of 'real progress' is ignoring the quality of the opposition and the realities of the game.

 

[barbarian]

Pre HKG, my view of the required EOYT markers were: win in HKG, and win all other EU games convincingly (as these EU teams rank below us and, generally, deservedly so). But I think I want to slightly amend that as follows:

- win all of W, E, F games with an average +ve PD across the 3 games in excess of 8 per game (as if we have a bias to 'just scraped in' type wins, there my be too much luck involved on the day, or we can't feel confident that the success is repeatable if we had to play that team a week later) and...

I think that is a bit too much. As much as I would love to win every game by 10-20 points, the historical reality is we always drop one at some point over the Spring. Playing these sides at home is a very tough task, even if the rankings suggest we should win. We should expect one off day, a la Scotland (but hopefully not THAT bad). Any more and I will be annoyed.

 

[RedsHappy]

I think that is a bit too much. As much as I would love to win every game by 10-20 points, the historical reality is we always drop one at some point over the Spring. Playing these sides at home is a very tough task, even if the rankings suggest we should win. We should expect one off day, a la Scotland (but hopefully not THAT bad). Any more and I will be annoyed.

Fair enough Barb....but...:

- an average of 8 + PD over these 3 games permits say a win of 12 points (Wales?), one of 8 (England?) and one of 4 (France?). Not too tough a stretch there if we are able to repeat the capability shown in HKG, but against arguably 3 lesser teams. Just a bit better boot work over the posts, and we could have won in HKG by say 8 or 11, not 2. Aren't we all to a man saying that it's consistency that we must demand/aim for from this team as of now?

- I'm not in the cheerleaders group as you know, but I'm reasonably optimistic that the largely self-inflicted wounds of the type seen in Scotland and Ireland in 09 can be eliminated this year. France seem the biggest threat, but we've played them pretty well in recent years, home and away (although I notice that Gagger predicts a loss to them in the London papers).

- I guess I was kind of saying, to your point: let's make the Italy game our 'off day' by taking a bundle of calculated selection risks, but all so taken in a very good cause.

 

[HG]

And, in this game only, I'd like to see KB (Kurtley Beale) at 10 and JOC (James O'Connor) at 12 (so to assess contingent and potentially exciting new combos), and...

- +ve goal kick ratio across all 4 games averages 80+% (forget the RWC if we can't get there and better via KB (Kurtley Beale), JOC (James O'Connor), BB, QC (Quade Cooper)) and...

.

Leave KB (Kurtley Beale) where he is. Why does everyone continue to want him to play at 10. The guy has just got comfortable at 15. Give him all the game time to continue to improve in the position that he has made his own over the last 6 or so tests.
I would shocked if Deans moves him to 10 and would be the first calling for head if he does. We have cover in Barnes and Giteau if needed.
This tour should be about using players in positions they have been playing for the Wallabies and Australia A. I do agree that we should be using the bench players during the upcoming tests but not at the expense of reducing the overall team strength.
There will be KPI's that Deans has in place for each and every test as a team and for individual players.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

Agree about KB (Kurtley Beale). Absolutely no need to play him at 10 right now. He's chopping them up at 15 and we don't have any other fullbacks in anywhere near the white hot form he's in. I think now is the time to resist the temptation to tinker too much. We've got a bit of momentum, so now let's try chalk up a couple more wins before we give ourselves the luxury of experimentation.

 

[en_force_er]

Leave KB (Kurtley Beale) where he is. Why does everyone continue to want him to play at 10. The guy has just got comfortable at 15. Give him all the game time to continue to improve in the position that he has made his own over the last 6 or so tests.
I would shocked if Deans moves him to 10 and would be the first calling for head if he does. We have cover in Barnes and Giteau if needed.
This tour should be about using players in positions they have been playing for the Wallabies and Australia A. I do agree that we should be using the bench players during the upcoming tests but not at the expense of reducing the overall team strength.
There will be KPI's that Deans has in place for each and every test as a team and for individual players.

I agree with you.

That being said, we should give him a run at 10 in a mid week test. Utility factor gives us options on the bench.

 

[RedsHappy]

Agree about KB (Kurtley Beale). Absolutely no need to play him at 10 right now. He's chopping them up at 15 and we don't have any other fullbacks in anywhere near the white hot form he's in. I think now is the time to resist the temptation to tinker too much. We've got a bit of momentum, so now let's try chalk up a couple more wins before we give ourselves the luxury of experimentation.

TBH - you noted I hope that I suggested KB (Kurtley Beale) @ 10, in one game only, Italy, after W and E, right? One of many reasons for proposing this: I am a great fan of QC (Quade Cooper), but, at Test level, there is just this eerie sense I (increasingly) have of instability, volatility and something dangerously erratic about him, and that some sort of fracture will open up, as though we could see one too many brain snaps or another 'incident' or such like with him. If he falls away - let's absolutely hope not! - I am not wild about BB at 10, and I am certainly ready to kidnap Giteau pre-game if there was ever a thought of putting him there ever again. I also unashamedly say that I sense KB (Kurtley Beale) could be a superb 10 - controlled experimentation can yield very useful contingencies for the future. And I don't think one game for KB (Kurtley Beale) there would all of a sudden wreck his 'settling in' at FB and all his gains there would be lost.

 

[HG]

I wouldn't. We don't need to confuse the guy. Let him be. As I said we have Barns and Giteau as back up for Cooper.
Number 10 didn't work for him in the Tahs, why risk purple patch with a move of position.