Brumbies v Rebels, Round 16 2014

[oztimmay]

As Tex would say, Rebels will in this. I have no factual evidence to base my statement, just blind faith and hope for another upset. Brumbies coming off a tough SA tour, so they might be down on confidence too. Then again, they might give us the bollocking of our life.

 

[199madmave]

Bad luck for Timani - injured playing Dewar Shield on Saturday. Will be unavailable for the Brumbies

 

[oztimmay]

Injury Report:

http://www.melbournerebels.com.au/n...bodirect-rebels-injury-report-monday-may-26th

Lorenzo and Tamati up for test, but looking like they will be right. Godo news. As @199mademave said Lopeti did his hammy ankle in Dewar shield so he's out. Looking more likely that Jordy will get a pine spot to replace Sean McMahon.

Still saying that Luke is 5 - 7 weeks away, Tom back potentially for NRC.

 

[Ghibli]

Rebels will in this

Distinct possibility.
Brumbies a little vulnerable ATM, maybe some players out of form still taking the field, maybe some distractions about contract renewals and Wallabies tours.

If the Rebels play aggressive-in your face rugby, this will be interesting.

 

[daz]

No, the Rebels have hit the wall and they are cooked.

You could see it in the Tahs game, and I could certainly see it in some of the players faces after the game. Heads down, slumped shoulders.

A couple of blokes I spoke to after the game were bewildered and close to tears.

The lads have had a real crack during this year of change, but they have just fallen into the deadly end-of-season combination of injuries to key positions, a general disappointment that it just hasn't clicked consistently this year and a young squad still getting used to hard core Super Rugby week in and week out.

I'm sure they will still give us fits and starts of good rugby for the rest of this year, but I think they have a general malaise over near enough just not being good enough, and they have simply run out of steam.

I hope I am wrong, but I think 2014 is done and dusted.

 

[Highlander35]

We need the June break to be honest. Obviously Higgers and Jones will be off playing with the Wallabies, along with Neville and English who'll train, but for the other boys, its about getting the heads right, resting the bodies, maybe a game in the Dewar Shield just to get the Playing right.

 

[Braveheart81]

I think they'll watch the Waratahs game again and realise that the Tahs were very bloody good.

Both the Tahs and Rebels were significantly worse when the Tahs beat the Rebels 32-8 earlier in the year in Sydney.

I thought the Rebels defended pretty well. There were some brilliant last gasp tackles that saved tries.

 

[daz]

I thought the Rebels defended pretty well. There were some brilliant last gasp tackles that saved tries.

Generous of you BH, but the Tahs put on most of their tries in the back-end of the game when the result was still up for grabs.

While there were some decent try-saving tackles by the Rebels, and while I agree the Tahs played much better than the Rebels overall, a fair few of those Tahs tries were also pretty bloody soft.

 

[KevinO]

I hope I am wrong, but I think 2014 is done and dusted.

I am going to say your wrong, look at this season and we have never backed up after a win. Does not mean the season is gone. The 8 day break and Ponies travelling back from a disappointing SA trip gives us a real crack at this one.

Last week was always going to be tough especially for our halfback and being his first start. The Tahs are a good side and missing Ellison in the back line on defense was a huge loss.

I think next year unless we sign Barnes as well Mitch will move back to 13 and Harris 12 will be ok, we need a second ball player to help on attack not a ball running 12.

 

[swingpass]

No, the Rebels have hit the wall and they are cooked.

You could see it in the Tahs game, and I could certainly see it in some of the players faces after the game. Heads down, slumped shoulders.

A couple of blokes I spoke to after the game were bewildered and close to tears.

The lads have had a real crack during this year of change, but they have just fallen into the deadly end-of-season combination of injuries to key positions, a general disappointment that it just hasn't clicked consistently this year and a young squad still getting used to hard core Super Rugby week in and week out.

I'm sure they will still give us fits and starts of good rugby for the rest of this year, but I think they have a general malaise over near enough just not being good enough, and they have simply run out of steam.

I hope I am wrong, but I think 2014 is done and dusted.

i fear you are right.

depending upon how much further they reds implode, the next home game will i believe be our only chance for another win this year. can't see us beating the bulls or more unfortunately the lions.

 

[Scooter]

I spoke to Laurie Weeks on Sunday and he said that he will be right for the Brumbies match. I think this will be his 50th cap (including Lions match) for the Rebels. Well done Laurie.

 

[Hawko]

i fear you are right.

depending upon how much further they reds implode, the next home game will i believe be our only chance for another win this year. can't see us beating the bulls or more unfortunately the lions.

I can't see this. For 60 minutes the Rebels were still in the game according to the scoreboard. That was solely as a result of desperation in defence, and that takes character. There are a lot of teams that would have folded completely under that pressure.

How they go this weekend will be determined by two things:

1. How badly bashed up the team was. Not many teams go very well the week after a Tahs game because the Tahs are such a physical forward pack (when TPN is probably the fifth most physical player in a pack, you expect a hammering). A good example was the Bulls vs Force game after the Tahs played the Bulls.
2. How the Brumbies recover. They played badly against the Cheetahs and then ran into a red-hot Bulls team. Their season totally depends on a win this weekend. They've got the bad time change travelling east to deal with. It'll be tough for them to get up, but they're a tough team.

So, I'm predicting a Brumbies win by a couple of points. At home, you'd expect that. Then you've got the international interval, which should see players recharge their batteries as only a couple will play tests and those probably off the bench.
After that its the Reds at home and the Bulls and Lions away. They must be favorites to win two of those games with only the Bulls game a bridge too far. The Reds are a mess and the Lions team are probably the most limited team in the comp. That's another nine points from four games and a very respectable season.

 

[swingpass]

I can't see this. For 60 minutes the Rebels were still in the game according to the scoreboard. That was solely as a result of desperation in defence, and that takes character. There are a lot of teams that would have folded completely under that pressure.

How they go this weekend will be determined by two things:

1. How badly bashed up the team was. Not many teams go very well the week after a Tahs game because the Tahs are such a physical forward pack (when TPN is probably the fifth most physical player in a pack, you expect a hammering). A good example was the Bulls vs Force game after the Tahs played the Bulls.
2. How the Brumbies recover. They played badly against the Cheetahs and then ran into a red-hot Bulls team. Their season totally depends on a win this weekend. They've got the bad time change travelling east to deal with. It'll be tough for them to get up, but they're a tough team.

So, I'm predicting a Brumbies win by a couple of points. At home, you'd expect that. Then you've got the international interval, which should see players recharge their batteries as only a couple will play tests and those probably off the bench.

After that its the Reds at home and the Bulls and Lions away. They must be favorites to win two of those games with only the Bulls game a bridge too far. The Reds are a mess and the Lions team are probably the most limited team in the comp. That's another nine points from four games and a very respectable season.

hope your analysis is correct, i will be happy if they continue to "turn up", happier still if it results in a couple of wins. like daz i saw a few bewildered faces after the game and again on saturday, along the lines of," thats all we've got and its still not good enough", think they need a confidence boost somehow.

 

[KevinO]

thats all we've got and its still not good enough", think they need a confidence boost somehow.

Release the shackles and let them attack like they did against the Cheetahs and we will see some confidence. No point in playing any style of kicking game to the Brumbies back three, Mogg kicks it back over your head with an extra 20 meters on it.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Recent form is a pointer to this game. Sharkes beat the Rebels, Brumbies beat the Sharks. So, consistent with other results this season, Rebels will beat the Brumbies.

 

[Slim 293]

Brumbies need to make the tough decisions now:

9. White
10. To'omua
11. Speight
12. McCabe
13. Kuridrani
14. Coleman
15. Lilo

Or swap Lilo with McCabe, or have them interchange throughout the game..........

But McCabe needs to be brought into the starting lineup, and Mogg could do with a rest.............

 

[Slim 293]

After posting that I just read that Mogg and Alexander are set to be benched this week...........

I hope Ruan Smith has been doing plenty of scrummaging at training...........

 

[Brumby Runner]

Brumbies need to make the tough decisions now:

9. White
10. To'omua
11. Speight
12. McCabe
13. Kuridrani
14. Coleman
15. Lilo

Or swap Lilo with McCabe, or have them interchange throughout the game....

But McCabe needs to be brought into the starting lineup, and Mogg could do with a rest.....

As much as I like Robbie Coleman and his enthusiasm, I think last week showed he is just a bit on the small side. I would rather start Rathbone if he is fit.

 

[Slim 293]

As much as I like Robbie Coleman and his enthusiasm, I think last week showed he is just a bit on the small side. I would rather start Rathbone if he is fit.

They're about the same height, and these days Rathbone is slower and much more brittle..........

 

[Brumby Runner]

They're about the same height, and these days Rathbone is slower and much more brittle....

But Rathbone would be 15-20kg heavier. Not many out there nowadays who are faster than Robbie.

I wouldn't be making radical changes at this crucial point, but down the track if they miss the semis or perhaps next year, I'd be keen to see Moggy on the wing and McCabe at 15.