Aussies an outside chance at best.

[disco]

THEY were Super 14 finalists in 2008 but bookies have huge doubts over New South Wales chances to go one better this year - ranking NSW as low as eighth in title betting.

And in a candid admission, Tahs captain Phil Waugh admitted even he is unsure exactly how NSW will fare without a host of departed senior players.

"I guess we are seen as a bit of an unknown," Waugh said.

The Waratahs lost the 2008 final 20-12 but are rated $11 outsiders to progress to a first Super rugby title by TAB Sportsbet, trailing behind the Crusaders ($4), the Hurricanes and Stormers (both $6), the Blues ($8) and the Bulls ($10).

They range from fifth to as low as eighth favourite with other agencies - although all see them as the best Australian side.

The losses of experienced Wallaby forwards Dan Vickerman, Rocky Elsom and David Lyons overseas, and Matt Dunning to injury, has clearly be seen as a huge blow to NSW's potency - particularly at lineout time.

"Losing all that experience, I guess we are a bit of an unknown how we'll perform," Waugh said.

"It's all shaping up okay, but until we get out there it is hard to know where we stand in terms of the other teams.

"With the experience in the backline, all the guys are a year older and more confident, blokes like Kurtley (Beale), Luke Burgess, Tommy Carter, Lachie Turner.

"But in the forward pack, well, that's probably the unknown quantity at the moment - how we are going to face up against the better packs. That's yet to be seen."

The Tahs' Wallabies are expected to be back for Friday's trial against Fiji in Newcastle.

As expected, Queensland lock Adam Byrnes was cited by the ARU yesterday for alleged foul play in a trial against NSW that left Tahs lock Chris Thomson with concussion.

 

[disco]

They range from fifth to as low as eighth favourite with other agencies - although all see them as the best Australian side.

Seems the aussie sides aren't really seen as a threat by the bookies, I might check out the odds on the Brumbies at the TAB tonight surely if they can keep thier main weapons on the park.

 

[fatprop]

Seems accurate

 

[Lee Grant]

Yeah - it seems about right unfortunately.

As I have said elsewhere: not only does the absence of the players, especially Vickerman and Elsom, lower the ability of the starting team, but also it lowers the ability of the 22, part of which was the often marvellous flexibility we had in the pack after Lyons made his return.

 

[disco]

I agree with the Tahs being an outside bet but the Brumbies have a very strong lineup this season yet they have been overlooked.

The Force are probably a stronger looking side on paper than the tahs yet the bookies have the Tahs as the best placed aussies.

 

[Blue]

I agree with the Tahs being an outside bet but the Brumbies have a very strong lineup this season yet they have been overlooked.

The Force are probably a stronger looking side on paper than the tahs yet the bookies have the Tahs as the best placed aussies.

Strong but inexperienced. They'll be hard to beat in Canberra but I fear the wheels may come off on the road.

Anyhoo your signature is quite something. It's quite disturbing at many levels. Too many levels.

 

[Lee Grant]

I think that the Tahs being the best placed Aussies is just about right, assuming our starting XV stays as healthy as can be reasonable expected. They have the best level of experience of the Oz teams IMO, and most of their less experienced players in the starting XV have logged several seasons and/or time at Wallaby Uni.

But they will drift in the market after injuries to T5 players.

I watched the replay of the Brumbies v Sharks 2008 game yesterday. How crap was the Ponies scrum in the first half? They'll have to get that right this year.

Same for the Force - and the Reds had some ugly moments too.

And, talking about the Reds: some people said good riddance to Blake and O'Donoghue when they left, but I've seen quite a bit of them in Europe this season and think the Reds will miss them in depth.

 

[RugbyReg]

I think that the Tahs being the best placed Aussies is just about right, assuming our starting XV stays as healthy as can be reasonable expected. They have the best level of experience of the Oz teams IMO, and most of their less experienced players in the starting XV have logged several seasons and/or time at Wallaby Uni.

But they will drift in the market after injuries to T5 players.

I watched the replay of the Brumbies v Sharks 2008 game yesterday. How crap was the Ponies scrum in the first half? They'll have to get that right this year.

Same for the Force - and the Reds had some ugly moments too.

And, talking about the Reds: some people said good riddance to Blake and O'Donoghue when they left, but I've seen quite a bit of them in Europe this season and think the Reds will miss them in depth.

yeah? Who? Perhaps one NSW supporter we are familiar with, but I know I and many QLD Supporters thought they were losses.

 

[formeropenside]

And, talking about the Reds: some people said good riddance to Blake and O'Donoghue when they left, but I've seen quite a bit of them in Europe this season and think the Reds will miss them in depth.

yeah? Who? Perhaps one NSW supporter we are familiar with, but I know I and many QLD Supporters thought they were losses.

I concur with my brother Noddy and have nothing useful to add.

 

[Lee Grant]

My mistake - I thought some of the Reds supporters had written posts to the effect they were no great loss. :-[

 

[disco]

Strong but inexperienced. They'll be hard to beat in Canberra but I fear the wheels may come off on the road.

I suppose the Brumbies biggest weakness is the halves position, that will hurt them unless players step up.

 

[RugbyReg]

Strong but inexperienced. They'll be hard to beat in Canberra but I fear the wheels may come off on the road.

I suppose the Brumbies biggest weakness is the halves position, that will hurt them unless players step up.

fair call.

No team has won the Super 12/14 competition without at least one international standard scrumhalf or flyhalf*








*please note no research whatsoever has gone into this assertion and it is based solely on my guess.

Hmmmm, 96&97 Blues = Carlos Spencer. Would you call him international quality at that stage? Had played tests right? Who was scrummie then? Pretty sure Los played for the ABs pre-pro era.

98, 99 & 00 Cru = Merts and Meg

01 Brums = Bernie and George

02 Cru = M&M

03 Blues = Spencer

04 Brums = Bernie and George

05 & 06 Cru = Carter now? with Meg still?

07 Bulls = FDP was 9, who was 10? Doesn't really matter

08 Cru = Dan the man

 

[disco]

07 Bulls = FDP was 9, who was 10? Doesn't really matter

Big Derek Hougaard the gun flyhalf from the 2003 rwc, he was famous for axing opposition outside centres especially ones from samoa.

 

[formeropenside]

Noddy - you forgot Lynagh for Qld in 94 and 95, together with Peter Slattery as halfback. Not that Slats was world class, but he was very unlucky to get caught behind both Farr-Jones and then Gregan they way he was.

 

[Cutter]

Steve Devine was the Blues 9 in '03 and he played for the ABs that year.

The Waratahs made the S14 final last year with a 19 year old 10 and a 9 who had played only a handful of S14 games before the start of the season. The Brumbies can do it, but will need Holmes and Lealifano (or Toumoa) to step up. More importantly though, they will need a strong forward pack to give their halves the time and space to make things happen.

 

[RugbyReg]

Yes Cutter the Tahs did make the finals with inexperienced halves. But the point is it takes world class halves to win the thing.

 

[Cutter]

Hougard's not world class but he had a very good forward pack giving him acres of space. Same with Beale and Burgess last year.

Give me a world class forward back and average halves and I'll beat your team of average forwards and world class halves.

 

[RugbyReg]

Hougaard also had Fourie du Preez. The best 9 in the world at the time.

But you are right the Bulls had a great pack as well. The Tahs though??

 

[rugbywhisperer]

This is a good arguement here. I have been wracking my brain and I can't think of a great side not having at least one great/very very good 9 or 10, preferably 10.
Same goes for American football, no side can really dominate without a great quarterback and that is exactly what a 10 is - play director,

 

[Scotty]

I think it is the 10 that is the key here. Although different countries will call different 10s great. For NZ and Oz, we like ours to run, pass and kick to the corners. Less so for Eng and SA, where they prefer a drop kicking, position kicking and tackling machine (although I think SA is changing this style).