Aussie Player Exodus

[Crashy]

if he's improved his line bending and his discipline, then thats good to hear. Tahs need a few more big forwards.

Rumours from a well informed Bordeaux insider that Swinton is not seeking a renewal with Bordeaux and is looking to return to Aus as early as June. Apparently in discussion with multiple Aus sides.

 

[Strewthcobber]

Swinton has only started once for Bordeaux in all of 2025 so far, so might be a bit of a mutual decision.

if he's improved his bending and his discipline thats good to hear. Tahs need a few more big forwards.

Red card in his second game in France for a lifting tackle

 

[Upthemaroon!]

Swinton has only started once for Bordeaux in all of 2025 so far, so might be a bit of a mutual decision.

Red card in his second game in France for a lifting tackle

It's never going to happen, but I think he would benefit of doing a season in South Africa. Those saffas get that discipline straightened out real quick.

 

[Upthemaroon!]

It's never going to happen, but I think he would benefit of doing a season in South Africa. Those saffas get that discipline straightened out real quick.

For anyone not getting this reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamp_Staaldraad

 

[upthereds#!]

Could go straight into 6 at the Tahs.

 

[PhilClinton]

For rugby union specifically, with the massive decline in shots at penalty goal (ex-Argies!), the number of goal attemps per player and game is way down.

The 2011 razzle dazzle Reds had 112 shots at goal. The 2025 Reds had 67

As there are just fewer shots, I'm guessing coaches are relying on having fewer players at the standard required

Surely the full team obstruction aka the maul is playing a big part in this.

Larger and more knowledgeable coaching teams would be running the statistics around the maul being a near unstoppable rugby move, the likelihood of scoring a try, the likelihood of an opposition player being penalised and then the likelihood of an opposition player being carded.

The combined percentage of all of those things would outweigh taking a difficult shot at goal.

 

[Rob42]

Surely the full team obstruction aka the maul is playing a big part in this.

Larger and more knowledgeable coaching teams would be running the statistics around the maul being a near unstoppable rugby move, the likelihood of scoring a try, the likelihood of an opposition player being penalised and then the likelihood of an opposition player being carded.

The combined percentage of all of those things would outweigh taking a difficult shot at goal.

I think the efficacy of the maul has dropped off somewhat in the last couple of years, with refs taking a closer look at lifters creating obstruction, and maybe just better defensive strategies. Mauls were almost unstoppable 5-10 years ago, doesn't seem to be the case today. Still pretty effective, just not unstoppable. I don't think the drop-off in pen goal attempts is linked to mauls. I'd think it's due to the higher number of tries being scored, and the feeling that scoring in 3s just won't be enough.

 

[Strewthcobber]

Surely the full team obstruction aka the maul is playing a big part in this.

Larger and more knowledgeable coaching teams would be running the statistics around the maul being a near unstoppable rugby move, the likelihood of scoring a try, the likelihood of an opposition player being penalised and then the likelihood of an opposition player being carded.

The combined percentage of all of those things would outweigh taking a difficult shot at goal.

I'd say it's exactly what's happening. They think the expected points from the chance of getting 7 from a kick to the sideline (whether it's a maul or not) is higher than the expected points from a shot at PG.

The end result is place kickers are less important, and line kickers rise in importance

 

[PhilClinton]

I think the efficacy of the maul has dropped off somewhat in the last couple of years, with refs taking a closer look at lifters creating obstruction, and maybe just better defensive strategies. Mauls were almost unstoppable 5-10 years ago, doesn't seem to be the case today. Still pretty effective, just not unstoppable. I don't think the drop-off in pen goal attempts is linked to mauls. I'd think it's due to the higher number of tries being scored, and the feeling that scoring in 3s just won't be enough.

Even anecdotally if we say efficacy of the maul has dropped off - it would still be running at something like an 80% success rate to either produce a try or penalty which is still the most effective play a team can have.

 

[Jimmy_Crouch]

Basically it is
70% for penalty goal = 2.1 points
or
40% for maul try = 2.0 points +
80% for conversion = 0.6 points
= 2.6 points

 

[Wilson]

Basically it is
70% for penalty goal = 2.1 points
or
40% for maul try = 2.0 points +
80% for conversion = 0.6 points
= 2.6 points

The failure case is probably as good or better for the maul in most situations then the penalty, where the opposition is like to get a 22 drop out or at least an easier exit

 

[Rebel man]

The ABC actually did a great, evidence-based write up on this recently. Aside from a comment from Paul Roos, is there evidence to suggest a lack of time spent trainingis to blame? Not really.

Kicking has been in the gun — but are shots on goal any worse than they've ever been?

Goalkicking accuracy is a talking point that consistently gets raised in the AFL — but how does 2025 compare to the years that have come before?

www.abc.net.au

Completely different ball game now. Try kicking a heavy water logged ball caked in mud like they did in the 80s compared to now. More often then not in modern stadiums the players are sheltered from the wind

 

[Tex]

What's keeping Nathan Cleary in the NRL? Won everything in sight, dynasty might be slipping, long distance relationship.

Mate - take the cashola, move to Biarritz and play for the Wallabies against the Boks in Cape Town instead of the Bulldogs in Belmore.

 

[Major Tom]

What's keeping Nathan Cleary in the NRL? Won everything in sight, dynasty might be slipping, long distance relationship.

Mate - take the cashola, move to Biarritz and play for the Wallabies against the Boks in Cape Town instead of the Bulldogs in Belmore.

He is taking a lot of cash in league make no mistake.

 

[PhilClinton]

What's keeping Nathan Cleary in the NRL? Won everything in sight, dynasty might be slipping, long distance relationship.

Mate - take the cashola, move to Biarritz and play for the Wallabies against the Boks in Cape Town instead of the Bulldogs in Belmore.

From a legacy standpoint, his lack of domination at SOO level will keep him below the all-time great halfbacks like Alfie and Johns.

Potentially that will be his drive now.

 

[Crashy]

Hearing second hand that he was all over the new offshore rugby thingo - the name of which I have clearly forgotten.
Make no mistake, mungos make any decision based on cash so its a simple process to get Cleary to rugby. ( you'd also think with a Kiwi dad, there would have been All Black chat at home over the years).

 

[Rebel man]

Hearing second hand that he was all over the new offshore rugby thingo - the name of which I have clearly forgotten.
Make no mistake, mungos make any decision based on cash so its a simple process to get Cleary to rugby. ( you'd also think with a Kiwi dad, there would have been All Black chat at home over the years).

A kiwi dad? His dad was born and grew up in Sydney. Doing a coaching stint there for a few years doesn’t make him a Kiwi

 

[TSR]

Hearing second hand that he was all over the new offshore rugby thingo - the name of which I have clearly forgotten.
Make no mistake, mungos make any decision based on cash so its a simple process to get Cleary to rugby. ( you'd also think with a Kiwi dad, there would have been All Black chat at home over the years).

Ivan isn’t a Kiwi. He coached the Warriors for a while, but he’s Australian.

 

[The Ghost of Raelene]

Ivan is a Northern Beaches kid with Ukrainian heritage. No NZ in there besides working there for a few years.

I think we overplay their interest in Rugby at times. They like their sport. Nathan is 27 years old with 4 premierships, 3 Origin series and a RLWC title.

I reckon he is a pretty driven guy to want to become a great in the Origin arena and get a few more prems which at 27 in that system I'd say the Panthers win at least 2 more in the next 5 years. Losing a prelim this year probably hurts his chances of leaving more than anything. Wouldn't he love to be the senior guy to bring through a new era

 

[Crashy]

Thanks for the correction. Always thought he was a kiwi.