NSW AAGPS 2024

[sundayeightpm]

I unsuccessfully tried to decipher the rankings calculations (world ranking calculator link). From my basic estimates if Georgia win on Saturday they may jump us, especially if they win by 15,

Can someone that is good at maths have a look at this?

It's pretty simple actually ;-) (the more complicated part is doing the calculations for all of the other games - as this will also affect how the table looks after the weekend) . We won't lose to Georgia BTW.

The World Rugby Rankings are calculated using a points exchange system, where teams gain or lose points based on their performance in matches relative to the strength of their opponents. The system is designed to ensure that a team's ranking points reflect its relative strength over time. Here's an overview of the algorithm and factors involved:

Key Components of the Algorithm

1. Match Result: The outcome of the match (win, loss, or draw) is the primary factor.
2. Home Advantage: Home teams are given a 3-point advantage.
3. Ranking Points: The ranking points of both teams before the match are considered.
4. Match Importance: Different matches have different weightings. For example, World Cup matches have a higher weighting than other international matches.
5. Points Exchange: The number of points exchanged depends on the difference in ranking points between the two teams and the match result.

Example Calculation

Suppose Team A (ranked 1st with 90 points) plays Team B (ranked 5th with 80 points) at Team A's home ground. Here's a simplified step-by-step calculation:

1. Pre-Match Rating Difference:
- Adjust for home advantage: Team A gets +3 points.
- New ratings: Team A = 93, Team B = 80.
- Rating difference = 93 - 80 = 13 points.

2. Match Result:
- If Team A wins, they gain fewer points (expected outcome).
- If Team B wins, they gain more points (unexpected outcome).

3. Match Weighting:
- Suppose it's a regular test match (weighting = 1.0).

4. Points Exchange:
- If Team A wins: Team A gains points based on a lower exchange rate.
- If Team B wins: Team B gains points based on a higher exchange rate.
- For a draw: Team B gains points, Team A loses points, reflecting the unexpected draw.

5. Final Update:
- Adjust both teams' points based on the calculated exchange.

(thanks to ChatGPT ;-).

So, if Georgia were to beat us by 5-10 points, this is the standing -

- Australia: 76.70 points
- Georgia: 76.36 points

If however, Georgina win by 10-15 pints - you are correct, it looks like this:

- Australia: 76.20 points.
- Georgia: 76.86 points.

 

[Soupnasty]

Why does a schools comp need to be elite? The elite competition for kids should be the state championships.

The finger is pointed at where "we" are strong is because those schools and competitions are so much stronger in this day and age at the expense of other clubs and schools who are preyed upon for talent. It wasn't this way for a long long time and Australian rugby did pretty well, not any more though.

Why do you assume that the GPS and CAS school comps, being elite, are at the expense of the Clubs and Schools? They are strong because they invest in Coaching, programs, facilities, etc., which raise the tide for all players in their program and attract any player who wants to be a part of a great system.
So instead of attacking something that is working, how about we instead expect more out of the club system, which asks parents to travel from the Blue Mountains to the Northern Beaches to the Eastern Suburbs to the South of Sydney on sometimes a week's notice (draw is always changing) - just to name one area for improvement
GPS, etc., isn't perfect, but turning it into the devil will not remove the ills of our current rugby state! (might make it worse)

 

[War Chest]

Why do you assume that the GPS and CAS school comps, being elite, are at the expense of the Clubs and Schools? They are strong because they invest in Coaching, programs, facilities, etc., which raise the tide for all players in their program and attract any player who wants to be a part of a great system.
So instead of attacking something that is working, how about we instead expect more out of the club system, which asks parents to travel from the Blue Mountains to the Northern Beaches to the Eastern Suburbs to the South of Sydney on sometimes a week's notice (draw is always changing) - just to name one area for improvement
GPS, etc., isn't perfect, but turning it into the devil will not remove the ills of our current rugby state! (might make it worse

Because to some extent, despite the great coaching, programs and facilities they still rely on parachuting in talent to get them over the line to win their comp. The impact then being that the clubs and schools that lost those kids are weaker, and in turn their competition is weaker. Ultimately the divide between the haves and have nots is getting wider and wider and that's not doing a great deal for rugby overall as the wallabies and waratahs are evidence of.

 

[CasualObserver]

Because to some extent, despite the great coaching, programs and facilities they still rely on parachuting in talent to get them over the line to win their comp. The impact then being that the clubs and schools that lost those kids are weaker, and in turn their competition is weaker. Ultimately the divide between the haves and have nots is getting wider and wider and that's not doing a great deal for rugby overall as the wallabies and waratahs are evidence of.

The same thing was happening leading up to the 1991 and 1999 world cup wins. Australian Rugby isn't weak because GPS rugby is strong. Although I think the schools could be spending the money more wisely - I would have thought building a great structure to attract good "fee paying" kids is a better long-term option than throwing money at a few kids to fill gaps.

 

[moa999]

I'm not sure if having talent spread through multiple weak teams is any better. (Trying to avoid the banned word) But in most sports there is a tendency to gather talent in a smaller number of teams at junior levels.

Personally think Super Rugby AUNZ (or even Super Rugby AU) needs an U21 or maybe U23 properly funded and played before Senior games to provide an equivalent path to NRL to the majority of kids.

 

[FastNFurious]

Because to some extent, despite the great coaching, programs and facilities they still rely on parachuting in talent to get them over the line to win their comp. The impact then being that the clubs and schools that lost those kids are weaker, and in turn their competition is weaker. Ultimately the divide between the haves and have nots is getting wider and wider and that's not doing a great deal for rugby overall as the wallabies and waratahs are evidence of.

Some schools develop talent, some schools take different approaches. The school that has historically focused on developing talent has also won the most premierships, produced the most Waratahs, the most Wallabies and even an All Black and an English Rose.

 

[Cauliflower Ear]

I'm not sure if having talent spread through multiple weak teams is any better. (Trying to avoid the banned word) But in most sports there is a tendency to gather talent in a smaller number of teams at junior levels.

Personally think Super Rugby AUNZ (or even Super Rugby AU) needs an U21 or maybe U23 properly funded and played before Senior games to provide an equivalent path to NRL to the majority of kids.

That is why we have colts and for the better young players shute shield. A strong national 2nd competition (well-funded) is what union is missing. A better comparison than the NRL is Rugby NZ where they have the NPC.

 

[The Cleaner]

That is why we have colts and for the better young players shute shield. A strong national 2nd competition (well-funded) is what union is missing. A better comparison than the NRL is Rugby NZ where they have the NPC.

Hear Hear

 

[Running_rugby_1954]

Some schools develop talent, some schools take different approaches. The school that has historically focused on developing talent has also won the most premierships, produced the most Waratahs, the most Wallabies and even an All Black and an English Rose.

Has that enabled the Wallabies and Waratahs to be successful?

 

[CasualObserver]

That is why we have colts and for the better young players shute shield. A strong national 2nd competition (well-funded) is what union is missing. A better comparison than the NRL is Rugby NZ where they have the NPC.

If RA and club rugby weren't fighting (endless squabbles and mistrust is rugby's biggest issue), then the money goes into Shute Shield and makes that into a strong competition that keeps old players in there to teach and grow the young ones.

 

[Rudderless]

The Australia U18s will face the New Zealand Barbarians in Hamilton on October 2 before facing the New Zealand side on October 6.

 

[The Cleaner]

View attachment 19936
The Australia U18s will face the New Zealand Barbarians in Hamilton on October 2 before facing the New Zealand side on October 6.

Congratulations to all Go well lads, represent with pride

 

[Maul of Duty]

I believe that these are all the boys (who are currently in school), that were not eligible to be selected in the Aus. Schools team as this seems to be higher honors.

Well done to all the original boys in the squad and to all the new boys that have now been added in. For the new boys, I think that is testament to hard work throughout the season so far and based on on-field performances week in and week out.

 

[Soupnasty]

Congratulations to all Go well lads, represent with pride

There is another round of additions in September
Then, a game between the squad before the final team is selected

 

[Maul of Duty]

There is another round of additions in September
Then, a game between the squad before the final team is selected

yep. On looking at the list compared to the original, I think a couple of boys have been removed, possibly league??

 

[Soupnasty]

Has that enabled the Wallabies and Waratahs to be successful?

Hasn't stopped them!

The Wallabies and Waratahs haven't been held back by schools investing in Coaching, Development and Facilities and participating in arguably the most competitive competitions in Rugby in NSW at the moment (perhaps the Shute Shield could be argued to be).

 

[Soupnasty]

yep. On looking at the list compared to the original, I think a couple of boys have been removed, possibly league??

At least one has signed a contract with League

 

[Flat out]

Some schools develop talent, some schools take different approaches. The school that has historically focused on developing talent has also won the most premierships, produced the most Waratahs, the most Wallabies and even an All Black and an English Rose.

Plus a Wiggle & a Gold Logie winner.

 

[Maul of Duty]

I'm not sure if having talent spread through multiple weak teams is any better. (Trying to avoid the banned word) But in most sports there is a tendency to gather talent in a smaller number of teams at junior levels.

Personally think Super Rugby AUNZ (or even Super Rugby AU) needs an U21 or maybe U23 properly funded and played before Senior games to provide an equivalent path to NRL to the majority of kids.

I also believe that in many cases, it is the talented player that make the decision to go to either the GPS or CAS school as they know they will play in a stronger competition week in and week out and it will only benefit their own game. Unfortunately being a standout player in a weaker team/division does not always mean that they can cut it at a higher representative level. I have seen boys been given the shot and they just aren't physically conditioned the same way (physically and mentally) and leads to big disappointment for the player.

I really believe that young players now, really do understand that they need to surround themselves with like minded people and other exceptional players to get the best out of their own game and to keep improving at a greater rate.

 

[CasualObserver]

I also believe that in many cases, it is the talented player that make the decision to go to either the GPS or CAS school as they know they will play in a stronger competition week in and week out and it will only benefit their own game. Unfortunately being a standout player in a weaker team/division does not always mean that they can cut it at a higher representative level. I have seen boys been given the shot and they just aren't physically conditioned the same way (physically and mentally) and leads to big disappointment for the player.

I really believe that young players now, really do understand that they need to surround themselves with like minded people and other exceptional players to get the best out of their own game and to keep improving at a greater rate.

Competition for spots all the way through at the strong schools makes them stronger at the pointy end. Kids in Joeys As, B's, C's underage teams have to do a fair bit of extra stuff away from school to stay in those teams. The kids that pop out at the end have to be in a better spot than being a walk-up start into the A's every year at a weaker school.